Lets talk about people today...help me recap one of the issues discussed in which is linked between 3 of the modules im taking this semester. Before that, in development economics, especially prevalent amongst contemporary models of development is the concept of complements and links.
Contemporary Development Economists believed that economic growth had a lot to do with complements and links. Just focusing on one aspect is not enough. For example, goods markets.. You have producers. What do you need? Sellers of course! Its easy to say that producers can sell the goods themselves what but put yourself in an agrarian society.. you're a farmer, you produce very little and mostly its for your family's basic consumption (subsistence)..you might have a bit of extras to make money from it but everybody else in your area IS a farmer... so with a middleman who can buy your products, consolidate and bring it to the city to sell..it will make everything easier and more productive. Hence...linking werks!! Always look for links..
That is how your brain funtions too.. Don't you notice how easy it is to remember or understand new things when you can connect or link it to something you already noe? Like for example, i know how to ride a motorbike..but now, i am about to learn to drive a car..It would seem hard if i were to treat both vehicles as TOTALLY DIFFERENT but if i can link them up..the concepts and the skills required, it would be easy. Find the commonalities, the clutch works the same, acceleration too, you have the signals and the headlights. A car is an all covered up motorcycle on 4 wheels! Therefore...LINK!
Now, lets revert to the topic of population issues.
We begin from a main argument in Development Economics. That
"population growth hinders economic growth" in the Less Developed Countries (LDCs)
Is this true?
Population growth rate is measured by the difference between the addition of Population Increase factors
(Birth and Immigration Rates) and Population Decrease factors
(Death and Emigration Rates)..and you divide it by the Population Size.
Then we analyse what causes high birth rates in the LDCs.
In rural societies, children are seen as assets. One way, they are the labour that toils the family farm. Another way, they are the insurance in old age. Due to the living conditions in rural society (poor healthcare and sanitation), the survival rate for children is not that high. Hence, to increase the number of surviving children, ppl have got to produce more children. Since male children are being preferred because they are thought to be more labour productive compared to girls and that they dun marry out of the family into another..ppl want to have more boys and hence keep trying for boys. Hence higher birth rates.
How can birth rates then be curbed? This can be explained using two concepts; the Malthusian Model (said to be father of family planning) and the Household Model.
Malthusian Model (MM)
The malthusian model is simple. It involves two factors; population growth and food supply. According to MM, population growth is either geometric or exponential. WHY? One pair of parents have 6 children. Assuming these children too have 6 children of their own and so on and so forth...hence, the growth is explosive if you can imagine. Food supply on the other hand grows arithmetically due to limited land and cultivation methods. So, population growth WILL ALWAYS be greater than growth in food supplies. Hence, food, mathematically would not be enough. This will result in each person having to eat only enough to survive. Hence, to survive and maintain this subsistence level of living, people will be morally restrained from having more children. Therefore, number of births are curbed.
Household Model (HM)
The household model teats children as economic goods. That there will be a demand for them and hence, competition. This competition lies in the form of goods that compete for the limited household income, which means every other goods! It is assumed that every household aims to maximise its utility. Children are seen as capital goods in this model. Capital is seen to bring delayed rewards. HM explains that as demand increases, ppl demand for more children (in relation to other goods)too, not in terms of numbers though but the 'services' (happiness, source of income..) they bring. Hence, the quality of each child must increase with an increase in income. Children are not inferior goods.
BUT..is high population the problem?
Microeconomics Theory of Fertility has something to say about this.
It states that to decrease population growth, government would have to raise the cost of raising the child. This cost is in terms of economic cost, which adds opportunity costs into the account. So, by increasing standard of living, education, income and opportunities for women in employment and education, the cost of rearing a child increases too! Hence, people will have lesser children. The overall standard of babies too will increase..
This ties in with the concept of Demographic Transition.
There are 3 stages to this..
Stage 1 : High Birth rates, High Mortality ..Due to poor sanitation and standards of living.
Stage 2 : Advancements in technology brings about betterment of healthcare and sanitation. Thus, mortality decreases but birth rates remain high as the effects of family planning education do not seep in as fast. Therefore...Explosion of population growth!
Stage 3 : Better education and increasing oppartunities for women in employment sees a drop in birth rates with the low mortality. Hence, replacement rates is near zero or very low. STABLE. But herald the new era of greying population and the issues that come with it..
Abit of sidetrack..Singapore is the only country so far active in trying to reverse the process of the demographic transition. This is because we have no other natural resources except our manpower. At low replacement rates.. we have had to restructure our economy and infreastructure to accomodate the greying population. Things like emphasized healthcare for the elderly and later retirement ages have been implemented. This changes the makeup of the society in whole. To cope with this population issues, Singapore has been actively trying to attract foreign expatriates and labours to solve the lack of labour supply.
So is high population or population growth the issue here? I think it ties in. Both are linked. High population growth leads to high population. Its like which comes first? The "chicken or the egg" question..
Haiz...hear i go ranting about revision...
May Allah guide us all..bless us with happiness and health n protect us from the dangers of this world, physically or mentally. Help us become successful people in the world and after...
Cowabunga dudes!
This is how i feel right now!!
That is how your brain funtions too.. Don't you notice how easy it is to remember or understand new things when you can connect or link it to something you already noe? Like for example, i know how to ride a motorbike..but now, i am about to learn to drive a car..It would seem hard if i were to treat both vehicles as TOTALLY DIFFERENT but if i can link them up..the concepts and the skills required, it would be easy. Find the commonalities, the clutch works the same, acceleration too, you have the signals and the headlights. A car is an all covered up motorcycle on 4 wheels! Therefore...LINK!
In rural societies, children are seen as assets. One way, they are the labour that toils the family farm. Another way, they are the insurance in old age. Due to the living conditions in rural society (poor healthcare and sanitation), the survival rate for children is not that high. Hence, to increase the number of surviving children, ppl have got to produce more children. Since male children are being preferred because they are thought to be more labour productive compared to girls and that they dun marry out of the family into another..ppl want to have more boys and hence keep trying for boys. Hence higher birth rates.
